You might want to keep an eye on the congressional primary race between Joe Schwarz and challenger Tim Walberg. It could be highly significant, even if you don’t live in the Seventh District, which stretches along Michigan’s southern border from Ann Arbor to Battle Creek, taking in Jackson and Eaton County.
Freshman Congressman Joe Schwarz would have been thought of as an old-fashioned Republican a generation ago. Hawkish on defense, moderate on spending and social issues.
But today there is an attempt to paint him as an out-of-touch liberal, because he doesn’t pass the twin tests of ideological purity. He thinks abortion should be “safe, legal and rare,” and doesn’t think cutting taxes is the most important thing any government can do.
How this race plays out in August may give us a significant clue to the future of the Republican Party, and may even hint at the battle lines for the next presidential nomination struggle.
If Schwarz can’t win, that will mean there is no place for moderate conservatives in the Michigan GOP.
But if he does, it may be a sign that Senator John McCain is more likely to be the next Republican presidential nominee. Six years ago, Schwarz angered conservatives by agreeing to run McCain’s presidential primary campaign in Michigan.
Then he humiliated then-Gov. John Engler by engineering a huge victory for McCain over George Bush. Conservatives grumbled that Democrats crossed over and voted for McCain, which did happen. A win, however, is a win. And George W. Bush has never carried Michigan in any race, a fact moderates like to point out. McCain has come back to campaign for Schwarz in his various races, and the two men have become personally and politically close.
The Seventh District is not, by the way, all that conservative. It usually votes Republican, but Bill Clinton carried it twice. President Bush won it both times, but with only 51 and 54 percent.
Hard to imagine that folks who voted for Al Gore and John Kerry will be tempted by Tim Walberg’s Christian right agenda.
And while voters in Republican primaries are more conservative than the general population, it would be a mistake to assume that they will automatically turn against their congressman. True, he won last time with only 28 percent of the vote. And true, Joe Schwarz’s opponents were more conservative than he was. But that doesn’t mean they’ll automatically vote for Tim Walberg this time. A lot of subjective factors come into play in any election, and people often vote for personality as much as ideology.
Also, the second place finisher in that race was the son of the outgoing congressman Nick Smith, whose name drew a lot of support. How those people will now vote is anyone’s guess.
In my experience, it is awfully hard to beat any incumbent not caught up in scandal, particularly when he has been endorsed by the President of the United States. However, all political pundits must always remember the most sacred text of our profession. You never can tell.
Comments