Jack Lessenberry Essays and Interviews

Essay: The Ethanol Craze - 5/12/2008

Depending on whom you talk to, corn-based ethanol is either the future, or the biggest con job since the perpetual motion machine. Nobody doubts any more that we need to do something different. The first time I ever saw a solar cell was in seventh-grade science class.

The teacher told us that by the time we grew up, our cars would be powered by these. I think the electric battery was supposed to get us through cloudy days. Sounded great to me. However, that was in the fall of ... 1963, and I have yet to see a solar-powered car.

As far as the solar powered future is concerned, I am running out of time to enjoy it.

The fact of the matter is that we still don’t have an agreed-upon replacement for gasoline. General Motors is once again working hard on an electric car. All the automakers are working on hybrids of some kind. Stan Ovshinsky, the now-retired founder of Energy Conversion Devices in Troy, is betting the future will be hydrogen. Others are betting on corn-based ethanol – at least as a transitional fuel. Then there is so-called cellulosic ethanol, which we first heard about when George W. Bush suggested making fuel out of switch grass.

In Illinois, a company called Coskata says it can make ethanol out of everything from table scraps to old tires. And their arguments were convincing enough to get General Motors to invest. The one thing all these people have in common is that they know the world’s fossil fuel reserves are running out.

Gas and oil are getting more and more costly, and nobody has a clear-cut solution as to what to do next. Actually, these are things we’ve known for decades, but never did anything about them.

Some say the oil and automotive industries did their best to make sure nobody did anything about them. Well, that’s changing now. We may not have one common fuel, at least not for awhile.

And we do need to experiment with as many alternatives as possible. But while I am no engineer, I have serious doubts as to whether corn-based ethanol makes sense.

Our sensible neighbors to the north get it. Monday, the Ottawa Citizen ran an editorial highly critical of the whole idea.

Noting that rising global prices and increasing food shortages have sparked recent riots in Haiti, the newspaper said “Food supply is a complex thing. But it is becoming clear biofuel production is playing a role in shrinking that supply.”

The image of peasants starving so we can fill up our Lincoln Navigators with ethanol-based fuel is not charming. The Ottawa paper suggests refocusing biofuel research towards algae. That sounds good. Making gasoline out of mosquitoes would sound good, too, But whatever we do has to pass two tests:

Will it work? And perhaps more importantly, what damage would it do to the environment and the ecosystem?

We are in a process of transition, and here’s something else they didn’t tell us back in seventh grade.

Whatever we do, it won’t be easy.

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Interview: Bruce Dale - 5/12/2008

As gas prices continue to rise, alternative fuels have become more popular. One of the more talked-about alternative fuels is corn-based ethanol. Bruce Dale is a distinguished professor of chemical engineering at Michigan State University. Michigan Radio’s Jack Lessenberry spoke with him about the future of alternative fuels.

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Interview: Dustin Dwyer - 4/25/08

The domestic auto industry was already struggling before a strike at American Axle and Manufacturing began to affect production at General Motors.  Now, a number of G-M plants are threatening to go on strike over local issues. But why is this happening now?  Michigan Radio’s Dustin Dwyer covers the auto industry.  Jack Lessenberry spoke with him.   

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Essay: CAFE, anyone? - 4/23/2008

Back in the early seventies, my friend Crazy Ernie drove a souped-up late model T-Bird. Ford had long since stopped producing the original T-Bird, a jaunty little sports car with porthole windows.

Ernie’s car was a vast brown thing which handled somewhat like a power boat on choppy waters. It belched thick blue smoke, and consumed prodigious quantities of oil and gas. As far as fuel efficiency was concerned, I seem to remember that it got about eight miles to a gallon, though he now swears it was ten.

The thing was, nobody I knew really cared about gas mileage, even though none of us had much money. When I first started driving, I remember gasoline as being 29.9 cents a gallon.

Then came the Yom Kippur war, in October 1973, and the first oil shock. Gasoline rose to nearly fifty cents a gallon. “You’ll live to see gas cost more than a dollar a gallon,” an old man told me.

That sounded fantastic, though I dimly feared he was right. Now, you need to realize that when you take inflation into account, a dollar in November 1973 in today’s money would be … $3.59 cents.

Which is exactly what I paid for gas this morning. Now, that is still a strain on the pocketbook, especially since I normally drive more than a hundred miles a day. But the reason I can do this and still eat is that the car I drive now gets nearly thirty miles to a gallon. If I were driving the first car I ever owned, a 1968 Chevy Biscayne that got 12 mpg, I would be in debtor’s prison.

That is, if the world’s entire oil reserves hadn’t been exhausted by two hundred million “gas guzzling dinosaurs,” which is what old George Romney used to call the cars Detroit made.

Fuel economy standards may be resented by laissez-faire capitalists. But together with the pressure of Japanese competition, café standards have been responsible for most of the dramatic improvements in quality in American vehicles since 1973.

The new standards announced this week aren’t going to be wildly popular in Detroit. But I think there is a new spirit of realism in the automakers’ boardrooms. They know they have lost clout on Capitol Hill. Here’s what that aging lion John Dingell, their longtime protector, told the Big Three privately last year.

“Work with me on this and be grownups, and I may be able to get you a café bill you will hate – but which you can live with.

“Be unreasonable, and you may get a bill that will put you out of business.” The automakers know that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi isn’t sympathetic. Plus, the odds of getting a better deal from the next President are none too good.

Detroit is being eased, kicking and screaming, into the 21st century world of increasing fossil fuel scarcity.

The cars are getting better however, and the kicks and screams more muted. And that, you might say, is a sign of progress.

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Interview: Brett Smith - 4/23/2008

The government is raising fuel economy standards for cars for the first time since 1975.  In the next dozen years, average gas mileage will have to climb by more than eight miles to a gallon of gas.  Brett Smith is an engineering and technology expert with the Center for Automotive Research.  Michigan Radio’s Jack Lessenberry spoke with him about how the new rules will affect the state’s automakers.

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Essay: Driving into the Future - 3/31/08

Last week the Associated Press filed a story out of Detroit that was meant to show some hope for the auto industry. It featured a 41-year-old computer specialist shopping for a new car. His old car was wearing out, and he needed a bigger one for his growing family.

So what kind of car was he looking at? A Honda Accord, a vehicle that while made in Ohio, is owned by a Japanese firm and is made with non-union labor. Or at least, not by United Auto Workers labor.

The computer specialist said he plans to look at American-made vehicles too, and said he believes General Motors is building better cars now. But he has been driving a Honda Civic.

And you can bet that in the end, he’s most likely to buy a Honda Accord. He’s been driving that Civic for thirteen years, and has been happy with it. Detroit is making better cars now. But a generation of consumers exasperated by poor quality switched to foreign, mostly-Japanese-made cars in the 1970s and 1980s. And Detroit is finding it very hard to win them back. That’s one of the two biggest problems for the auto industry.

The other was dramatically illustrated by something the CEO of American Axle & Manufacturing told the Detroit Free Press: “We have the flexibility to source all of our business to other locations around the world, and we have the right to do so.”

And he added, “We will not be forced into bankruptcy in order to reach a market-competitive cost structure in the United States.”

More than a month ago, workers at American Axle walked off their jobs on strike. That’s because American Axle wants to cut wages in half. The company claims that its current costs are about three times those of its rivals, and it can’t compete.

That is, indeed, a serious problem. But so, union members rightly add, is trying to figure out how to feed and clothe a family on half of what you’ve been used to making.

Walter Reuther and Doug Fraser and the other pioneers of the UAW had plenty of problems getting their union started. But coping with threats to move production to Mexico wasn‘t one of them.

Meanwhile, the United Auto Workers are failing to organize any of the new transplant auto factories. Every year sees UAW membership grow smaller and smaller.

Once, the UAW represented more than a million and a half workers. Now, that‘s down to less than 465,000. That‘s fewer than when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.

The union doesn’t seem to know how to cope with globalization. But the companies don’t seem to realize that if you move all the jobs to other countries, there won’t be much we will be able to buy.

Japan built its auto industry on the philosophy that workers and management would make joint sacrifices for the good of all. We pay lip service to that concept, but don’t really practice it.

But considering the alternative, it just might be worth a try.

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Interview: Sean McAlinden - 3/31/2008

The domestic auto industry has been struggling over the past year, and the challenges keep coming. The strike at American Axle and Manufacturing is now affecting production at GM. Domestic sales for all three automakers seem to have slumped in March… And, Ford just sold Jaguar and Land-Rover for a fraction of what the company paid for them. Sean McAlinden is chief economist at the Center for Automotive Research. Michigan Radio’s Jack Lessenberry spoke with him about the many hurdles that face the domestic auto industry.

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Essay: Weak Dollar - 3/28/08

Years ago, I worked for a publisher who was approaching ninety. He was a marvelous man with a great sense of humor. When I asked what it was like to be his age, he said it was great.

“You don’t have to care about long-term capital gains."

Well, the United States of America is approaching age 232. But unlike my late friend, we have a lot to worry about, especially if we want to be around for awhile. If you look at the national psyche, it is clear some things get way too much worry time, like Lindsay Lohan.

Others get about the right amount, such as Iraq.

But there are other things we don’t think nearly enough about, such as the fragile underpinnings of our economy.

I am not an economist, but I talk to people who are, and read what they write. And for the first time in my life I am seeing sensible, sober economists talking about the D-word, not just the R-word.

As in, Depression. They usually say they don’t think we are likely to have another Great Depression, but they admit the possibility is there. And that should scare the pants off all of us.

What’s worse is that any new depression would probably be far harder to climb out of than the one in the 1930s. Even then, it took a world war to really end the downturn’s effects.

Now, we are much more dependent on other nations. That’s one reason the dollar is weak. We have gotten used to an extravagant consumer lifestyle. For decades, we have been buying far more stuff from other countries than they buy from us. About two to three billion dollars worth a day, that is.

Having a weak dollar helps with that, to some extent. It means the value of the stuff we are selling goes up.

It also makes it much more attractive for foreigners to buy our products or vacation here.

That’s good. But it means it is harder for us to travel, and that the price of electronic stuff is likely to soar.

But that’s not the real worry. The dollar has been the key world currency since World War II, the one other countries use to set prices, such as for crude oil and commodities.

However, there is a strong new kid on the block -- the Euro. Originally, it was designed to be equivalent to the dollar.

Today, one Euro is worth about $1.60. If OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Nations, were to start setting prices in Euros, we would have to pay a lot more for oil.

Our other problem is that we are now heavily dependent on borrowing from China. We owe China, in fact, a trillion dollars. If China were to decide to start investing in Eurobonds instead of American bonds, we’d be looking at a lower standard of living.

These problems are serious and real.

So, don’t you think it’s time the presidential candidates talked more about this stuff, and a whole lot less about where anybody goes to church?

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Interview: Dana Johnson - 3/28/08

The dollar has plunged to record lows against the Euro. But a weak dollar is not necessarily bad news for everyone… In fact, it may actually be good news for Michigan’s auto industry. Dana Johnson is Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. Michigan Radio’s Jack Lessenberry spoke with him.

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Essay: The Driven Future - 3/18/2008

When I was a little boy in the late 1950s, there was a popular TV show called “You Asked for It.” I remember one episode that showed what cars of the future would be like. They would be powered by some kind of mini-nuclear reactor under the hood, the announcer intoned.

They also would have some kind of retractable helicopter blade, so that the driver stuck in traffic could just zoom over any potential traffic jams. I’m not sure why there wasn’t any worry about Dad careening up into a pile of other cars trying to do the same thing.

But I didn’t worry much because I couldn’t drive, and besides, the announcer said the helicopter car wouldn’t be standard till as late as 1990. I mention all this to show that when it comes to forecasting the technology future, even the so-called experts tend to have a pretty poor batting average. This has been especially the case with cars.

After World War II, the U.S. government offered Volkswagen to the Ford Motor Company, as partial compensation for factories in Europe that had been bombed. Thanks but no thanks, Henry Ford the second said. He knew his market, and he knew nobody in America would want to buy an ugly little car like the Beetle.

But now we’re approaching the crunch time. Our oil supplies are dwindling faster than anticipated because of the amazing growth of China, whose consumption is growing at a rate more than seven times faster than our own. If nothing else, you’ve seen that in the price of gas, which is marching towards four dollars a gallon. Sooner or later, we may have our imports cut off again. What the history of technology does indicate is that when big breakthroughs occur, they generally happen fast and are totally unexpected.

They also tend to revolutionize technology and change the world very rapidly. Nobody in the year 1900 saw a mass market for automobiles, but within two decades this nation was on wheels.

So here’s what I think is likely to happen with cars, based on our historical experience. Somebody will make a big breakthrough, sooner than we think, that will make some form of alternative-fuel powered cars suddenly affordable, practical and desirable.

Within a very few years, whatever new technology emerges will be the norm, whether that means clean-burning electric cars or hydrogen cars or hamster-powered vehicles.

If I am right, that is. If so, what will be most interesting is what happens after that. How the move away from fossil fuel will change our culture and way of life, even our language.

Think: We have conversations every day that would have been incompressible in 1990. That’s because of the World Wide Web, which was invented in 1989. Within less than a decade, it had changed our lives dramatically. I don’t know what will replace fossil fuel.

But I suspect that when it does, teenage boys will no longer hang out at the gas station. And that will make cultural historians just a little bit sad.

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