There is something about human nature, or maybe just the American psyche, that makes us think there is some one-shot solution for every problem. We have a pill that prevents pregnancy. Now, we expect to find one that will cure cancer, or AIDS. Cars burst on the scene a little over a century ago, and gasoline replaced horse exhaust almost overnight, or so it now seems.
So we expect any day now to have a wonder fuel that will replace gasoline. Some people are betting on biodiesel. Some are betting on hydrogen, some think solar will do it, and others think the next generation of electric batteries will solve the problem for all time.
And, of course, there are those putting their money on ethanol. To the best of my knowledge, nobody is betting on a car with a mini nuclear power plant under the hood, but you never know. So now here’s a heretical thought.
What if none of these ideas ever takes over the market completely? The one thing we know is that the gasoline supply is running out, although it is still likely to be part of the vehicle fuel mix till long after we have all been recycled.
What I think is likely to happen, at least in the middle run, is that we will have vehicles powered by a variety of fuels. Ethanol may play a role, possibly in rural areas or for farm vehicles. Michigan State University is looking into planting crops for biodiesel on otherwise unusable brownfields. The scientists at Energy Conversion Devices make a compelling case for hydrogen in many applications.
And it seems to me that electric car technology is already at the point where a vehicle could be produced that is perfectly adequate for most daily and suburban driving. Improved and expanded mass transit is also likely to be part of the mix – but again, only a part.
Ironically, Michigan is now becoming more receptive to mass transit at a time when fewer of us are working at one stationary 9-5 job in the same place. If doing your job means running unpredictably from place to place, taking the train to work is apt to be less appealing.
These days, every alternative fuel and every transportation system has its devotees. I think that it is good and healthy to have a vigorous debate about all these alternatives, and we need someone to point out all their various weaknesses, but in a constructive way.
There is a danger in that, too, however. The risk is that the general public will become so confused and cynical that they will lose all interest in trying to learn about alternative fuels and transportation.
That may mean that we will lose interest in funding research and development, until it turns out to be too late. We have to keep an open mind, but we also have to remember that we are running out of gas.
Dear Jack
Why no mention of Ethanol made from Cellulose. The National Renewable Energy Lab in Golden CO. has reported that -Switchgrass will yield 1,150 gals per acre.
I encourage you to do research - see how much cellulose is in switchgrass-- then see that Hemp has 77%. 98% of all the Cannabis Hemp that was eradicated last year in the USA was like what is being grown in Canada as Industral Hemp. In short we are killing off our natural seed.
Canada is growing 50,000 acres adding it to cars and homes and China and 30 other countries have been growing it for many years.
We here in Kalamazoo have lost thousands of paper making jobs while WMU teaches paper making.
Why not one research study on renewable Hemp paper allowed.
On the www.miagbiz.org
showed that the Dept of Energy just gave out $385 million for six biorefinery projects over the next four years up to 40% of the cost of the biorefinery.
None in MI.
Energy Sec Sam Bodman said (March 1 2007)this investment will help cellulosic ethanol move closer to becomming a commercially viable alternative to gas and corn-based ethanol by lowering production cost "$1 a gallon, i think, is a reasonable target,"he said.
If this is true than why don't we use Cannabis and save our food.
On the same site Ag Sec Mike Johanna says (Feb 16 2007) Cellulosic ethanol could be financialy viable alt fuel within five years.
"But meeting that demand means that we'll have to draw on resources and regions that ...Traditionally we didn't think about," he said.
Please Jack ck out what NON- Traditional resources he means.
Posted by: mike dooley | March 06, 2007 at 03:15 PM