Essay: Violent Crime - 9/12/06

Years ago, when I was a young reporter at a newspaper in another state, my editor got very excited about a story.

A new government report indicated a dramatic drop in crime, especially violent crime, and I was to dig deeper into this and write about it.  Unfortunately, when I dug into it, I found something else.

Certain cities, including cities in our state, hadn’t got their data in to the federal government in time for the report. Some of this was probably due to normal bureaucratic inefficiency.

But it also seemed clear to me that some places deliberately delayed their reporting because their numbers didn’t look so good. Crime, in other words, hadn’t really declined at all. And my marvelous, life-is-getting-better story died, stillborn.

Ever since, I have been skeptical of any stories indicating that crime has dramatically risen or fallen in any particular year. Crime is like climate change. Things fluctuate year to year, but what matters is what happens over a longer period of time.

Violent crime clearly has declined over the last few decades, but not because of government policies. We haven’t had as much in large part because our population has been aging since the postwar baby boom started to slow.  The median age nationally and in Michigan used to be under 30. Now, half of us are over 36.

More than half of all white Americans are over 40.  The older you get, the less likely you are to commit violent crimes. At age 54, I have to admit, I can’t run from the police as fast as I used to.

But if the latest FBI statistics are correct, then why are crime rates again going up?  One explanation may be the economy.

There may also be a more ominous explanation. Kurt Metzger, who is now with the United Way of Southeastern Michigan, knows more about population trends than anyone else I know. He spent years with the Census Bureau, then ran a population studies institute at Wayne State University. Some years ago, he told me to watch for a spike in crime in Detroit, starting about now.

Most middle-class people with children have been gradually moving out of the city, seeking better schools and a better future. That leaves a rising generation without a lot of prospects.

Consider the 129,000 students who are in the Detroit public schools – or who would be there, if the schools weren’t on strike. A few of those will go to one of the two or three decent high schools.

As for the rest – they will get an inferior education. Then they will emerge into a world where unemployment is high and few adults have good jobs. Prospects for young minorities are weakest of all. Do you think these folks aren’t going to be tempted by crime? 

We have tried lecturing them and locking more of them up than we can afford. Perhaps we should try instead to figure out what we can do to give them a chance at lives with some hope.         

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Comments

[Thrasher]

"do you think these folks aren't going to be tempted by crime"

I have always operated under the premise bigots cannot hide from thier true nature it always comes out in some manner or incarnation.

Low budget opinions of Black folks especially our Black youth has always been and remains a staple of American society when it surfaces pass the pc filters it is by no means a suprise nor a shock but in truth it still does sting to observe such contempt for my people in print.

Crime on American soil has always been the perogative and domain of it's majority people. FBI stats clearly document that most drug users, dealers, sexual perverts, domestic abusers, serial killers, domestic terrorists, folks have tried to kill our presidents, porn operators, seniors con men, white collar criminals.. have been overwhlemingly white males.

Stranger danger is a rare animal in the jungle of crime but facts do not matter to people who have contempt for others and whose mindset is underdeveloped.

"do you think these folks aren't going to be tempted by crime"

WOW!!.. I perfer to focus on those who do commit the crime Jack, those folks who look like you..

[Franklin]

Thrasher,

I don't agree with Jack sometimes, but he's one of the few local journalists in the area that's willing to speak the truth, albeit from his point of view. I'm going to agree with some of the comments others have made about you.

1) Why are you making racist comments specifically directed to the fact that Jack is white? As much as I agree that it's wrong to point to a specific race for causing violent crime, I don't think Jack is doing that, but you feel free to do it with him with your not-so-thinly veiled comment.

2) Your open hostility betrays anyone taking your opinion seriously. Rather than reading what you have to write and think to myself that these are the opinions of a thoughtful, level-headed person, it comes across as an angry, raving lunatic.

3) Your unthoughtful point that Jack is inferring that minorities are the cause to the problems tells me you didn't even really read what he had to write. Jack flat out points to the fact that WHITE Americans are aging past 40 and that WHITE Americans past that age are less likely to cause crime (by making a self-deprecating comment about his age and lack of ability to run from the police).

I am not defending Jack in any way. I'm just trying to point out how unfair and unreasonable you are. Unfortunately, my experience with anger and narrow-mindedness had taught me that it's doubtful you'll listen.

[Thrasher]

Franklin,

Your willingness to join the lynch mob is not a surprise nor does it add any value to your opinions as a matter of fact I could marshall a ton of yahoo's on this site to worship at my altar as well.

Nevertheless since I have no resevations about answering my critics despite having no obligation to do so I will address your points directly;

1. I have not made any illusions about my opinion that Jack is a bigot his comments from my perspective as a person of color often reek of racism for example "do you think these people..." this is offensive and a clear example of those who water at the pool of low expectations and soft bigotry.. Jack painted such a a broad brush with this venom it still stings brush BTW he has never done that with white students whose district and teachers have left them in a lurch...

2. Many folks have e-mailed me becuase of my comments on this site . They love my passion not anger and they respect my ability to reject the shallow opinons often presented on this site. Truth is I write for me not others...

3. Your logic here is backward and very selective one can make the same point about any aging population regardless of race will commit less crimes but Jack did not do that... he indicted black youth and of course would never publish a list like I did which demonstrates the crimes where white males lead the pack which BTW is accurate, can be verified and undeniable.

Fact is Jack is not the best nor does is he the final arbiter of truth and justice on this site or anywhere in this region, he has posted how he had kiss and tell meetings with DPS/CEO who had contempt for Black taxpayers and Jack said nothing until now in that same post Jack slammed the Black DPS/CEO for wearing cufflinks!! Jack never offered up any sound reasons to attack the man except for his cufflinks!!

"I am not defending Jack in any way.. yeah sure at least have some courage about your backing up Jack otherwise I will dismiss you as I have done with his other cheerleaders..

In summary unless you can step up and offer up objective facts and information to refute my opinons on this site I will view you as just another angry apologist you may recall this verbaige "unfair and unreasonable..and I may have to agree with my friends who visit this site that the folks who attack me are ignorant , angry underdeveloped white folks who resent me becuase I bring logic and value and common sense to a site which lacks it...